How to end the ‘Hormuz war’

Core Impact Points

• The US is facing a global economic crisis due to the closed Strait of Hormuz, which has led to commodity shortages and increased prices.
• The Iran-Oman talks are the best chance for a least-bad resolution of the problem, and the US should provide input to Oman as needed and approve any final settlement.
• A deal over the strait would likely be fragile, with pre-war maritime traffic volumes not returning for a long time, if ever, and US sanctions on Iran remaining in place.
• Iran would try to rebuild its defense industrial base to get ready for a next US-Israeli attack, and this could lead to further regional instability.
• The US is under pressure to end the conflict due to plummeting approval ratings heading into the midterms and a looming global economic crisis.
• The author suggests that the US should not use military force to try to force Iran to submit, as this would likely lead to major retaliatory Iranian attacks on Gulf infrastructure.